Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has has something to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
